![]() "The AUD and NZD’s cyclicality has clearly weakened" states Mackel. The recent surge in commodity prices, largely driven by supply-side factors, imposed significant growth constraints on the global economy.Īs the global growth stabilises, these elevated commodity prices are expected to decline, leading to less favourable trade terms and investment inflows for Australia and New Zealand. ![]() The present scenario, however, deviates from this trend. Historically, an improved global growth outlook would translate to an increased demand for exports from Australia and New Zealand. Moreover, both the AUD and NZD have witnessed a clear reduction in their cyclicality. "A markedly slow recovery in China remains the key constraint, with limited improvement in sight" says Mackel. This lacklustre recovery in China poses a considerable constraint, particularly when assessing the potential for increased demand for key commodity exports like iron ore and dairy products. Secondly, the demand outlook for Australia and New Zealand's major exports appears bleak, mainly because of China's notably slow recovery. "Risks are asymmetrically tilted towards a convergence of the rate cut outlook between the Fed and the RBA" the analyst adds. "Relative end-2024 OIS pricing has explained nearly 40% of AUD-USD’s variation recently" says Paul Mackel, Global Head of FX Research at HSBC. The confluence of three main factors underpins HSBC's revised predictions.įirst, there's an anticipated convergence in the rate cut outlook between the Federal Reserve and the Antipodean central banks that is expected to occur during the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. Find out more in the Regulations section of our FAQs.Currency strategists at HSBC have revised lower their forecasted exchange rate levels for the Australian (AUD) and New Zealand Dollars (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD) in their latest currency brief to clients.įoremost, they suggest that the AUD and NZD will experience a weakening trend before stabilising in the second quarter of 2024, with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD forecasted to reach 0.62 and 0.55, respectively, by the end of the first half of 2024. Regional restrictions FXTM brand does not provide services to residents of the USA, Mauritius, Japan, Canada, Haiti, Suriname, the Democratic Republic of Korea, Puerto Rico, the Occupied Area of Cyprus, Quebec, Iraq, Syria, Iran and Cuba. It is the responsibility of the Client to ascertain whether he/she is permitted to use the services of the FXTM brand based on the legal requirements in his/her country of residence. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Before trading, please take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary. Trading leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors. Trading non-leveraged products such as stocks also involves risk as the value of a stock can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Risk Warning: Trading Forex and Leveraged Financial Instruments involves significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. Įxinity Limited is a member of Financial Commission, an international organization engaged in a resolution of disputes within the financial services industry in the Forex market. ![]() Katharine's Way London, England, E1W 1UN, UK is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority with license number 777911.Įxinity Limited (with registration number C119470 C1/GBL and registration address at 5th Floor, NEX Tower, Rue du Savoir, Cybercity, 72201 Ebene, Republic of Mauritius is regulated by the Financial Services Commission of the Republic of Mauritius with an Investment Dealer License with license number C113012295.Ĭard transactions are processed by Exinity Works (CY) Limited, registered number HE 351684, and registered/business address at Exinity Tower, 35 Lamprou Konstantara, Kato Polemidia, Limassol, 4156, Cyprus. 46614.Įxinity UK Limited (with registration number 10599136 and registration address at 1 st. ![]() FXTM brand is authorized and regulated in various jurisdictions.įorexTime Ltd (with registration number HE 310361 and registration address at 35, Lamprou Konstantara, FXTM Tower, 4156, Kato Polemidia, Limassol, Cyprus is regulated by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission with CIF license number 185/12, licensed by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, with FSP No.
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